Ongoing Climate Changes Make it Increasingly Difficult to Predict Certain Aspects of Weather

According to a recent study conducted by Stockholm University, it has become increasingly challenging to predict specific aspects of weather as a result of ongoing climate changes.

Concentrating on weather forecasts in the northern hemisphere covering 3 to 10 days ahead, the study reached a conclusion that summer downfalls represent the greatest uncertainty increase. When it comes to one’s ability to predicting and preparing for flooding, summer downpours are considered to be a highly critical aspect.

The study titled “How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting” was performed by Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori at the Department of Meteorology and has appeared in Geophysical Research Letters. This study establishes a fact that present changes in the global climate affect one’s ability to make precise weather forecasts. One significant factor is the reduction in the temperature variation between the equator and the North Pole.

The most significant uncertainty in the examined span of medium-range weather forecasting (that is 3 to 10 days) appears to befall the potential to forecast the amount of summer rain. On the other hand, some other parameters, like air pressure and temperature, may turn out to be more precise.

Reliable weather forecasts are tremendously important for almost all of society, and summer flooding in the northern hemisphere especially is one of the great challenges as the climate is getting warmer. It is very important that meteorological institutes around the world are given the opportunity to develop their tools and methods as conditions change.

Sebastian Scher, Study Main Author, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University.

During the next step, the research project will continue at Stockholm University, and it will particularly pay attention to one’s ability to forecast substantial summer downpours in 24 to 48 hours.

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