Reviewed by Lexie CornerMar 7 2025
Researchers from Beijing Normal University have shown that rising methane emissions could substantially impede the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, particularly over the poles. The study highlights the complex relationship between methane emissions and ozone recovery.
A frozen lake near Wudaoliang on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau captures the striking sight of trapped gas bubbles beneath the ice. As global temperatures rise, the thawing of lake ice could accelerate the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. Image Credit: Lei Wang
For years, scientists have focused on the ozone layer, which protects life on Earth from harmful UV radiation. Global efforts, such as the Montreal Protocol, have successfully reduced substances that deplete the ozone layer. However, human activity and global warming have introduced new uncertainties about the ozone layer's future recovery.
Our research highlights the dual role of methane in ozone recovery. While methane is a potent greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming, it also has complex chemical interactions in the atmosphere that can affect ozone levels. Understanding these dual effects is critical for predicting future ozone recovery and its implications for climate.
Dr. Fei Xie, Study Corresponding Author, Beijing Normal University
The research team conducted sensitivity experiments to examine the individual and combined effects of sea surface temperature, carbon dioxide, and methane on stratospheric ozone under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario for 2050, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (version 4).
The RCP8.5 scenario predicts significant global warming by the end of the century, assuming high greenhouse gas emissions and limited efforts to mitigate climate change. This scenario is often used to assess the potential effects of a “business-as-usual” approach to climate change.
The study reveals that rising methane emissions could have a particularly strong positive impact on ozone recovery in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
Just as ozone can be harmful at ground level but beneficial in the stratosphere, methane, and other ozone precursors exhibit similar dual characteristics. By adopting a more nuanced perspective, we can better understand the two-sided effects of these substances and work toward optimal solutions for climate governance.
Dr. Fei Xie, Study Corresponding Author, Beijing Normal University
The research team plans to refine their models in the future to account for additional variables that could affect ozone recovery. They also aim to explore the potential atmospheric and climatic impacts of future ozone recovery by connecting the factors influencing recovery with the resulting climatic effects.
Our ultimate goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of ozone recovery pathways and their broader implications. This will help policymakers and scientists make informed decisions to address both ozone layer restoration and climate change.
Dr. Fei Xie, Study Corresponding Author, Beijing Normal University
Journal Reference:
Liu, Na., et al. (2025) Impact of Methane Emissions on Future Stratospheric Ozone Recovery. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4142-6