A recent study published in Communication Earth & Environment explored how diversified hydrogen production can significantly reduce carbon emissions and energy use across major Chinese cities. It highlighted that combining green and blue hydrogen could lower emissions by up to 96% compared to coal-based hydrogen.
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The findings provide practical insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders to support China's 2060 carbon neutrality goals and advance sustainable urban energy systems.
Hydrogen Energy: An Emerging Clean Technology
Hydrogen energy is gaining global attention as a clean and flexible energy source essential for addressing climate change. It has the potential to decarbonize sectors such as transportation, industry, and power generation.
According to the 2024 Global Hydrogen Review, demand for hydrogen reached 97 million metric tons worldwide in 2023, growing by 2.5% year-on-year. As the world's largest hydrogen producer, China had an annual production capacity exceeding 49 million tons in 2023. This capacity was primarily derived from fossil fuels like coal and natural gas, leading to high carbon emissions. Transitioning to low-carbon hydrogen, including blue hydrogen (produced with carbon capture) and green hydrogen (from renewable-powered electrolysis), is critical for reducing emissions.
Despite its potential, hydrogen production remains costly. China's hydrogen strategy utilizes diverse production methods based on regional resources to lower costs and ensure a cleaner supply. This aligns with the country's Hydrogen Industry Development Plan, which aims to produce 100,000-200,000 tons of renewable hydrogen by 2025.
Evaluating Hydrogen Production Across Leading Chinese Cities
To assess hydrogen's role in reducing emissions, researchers analyzed 12 hydrogen production methods across five key Chinese cities: Shanghai, Beijing, Foshan, Zhangjiakou, and Zhengzhou. These cities serve as hydrogen pilot clusters due to their robust infrastructure and policy support. A life cycle assessment (LCA) was employed to measure carbon emissions and energy consumption from production to distribution.
The study examined technologies such as coal gasification, steam methane reforming (SMR), chlor-alkali electrolysis, biomass gasification, and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis powered by solar, wind, or grid electricity. Fossil-based methods combined with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) were also evaluated.
In Beijing, grid-powered PEM electrolysis emitted up to 33.26 kg of carbon dioxide (CO2) per kilogram of hydrogen, highlighting the importance of clean electricity for green hydrogen production. The authors modeled nine future scenarios to evaluate the impacts of technology improvements, CCUS adoption, and hydrogen market growth from 2021 to 2060. These scenarios considered factors like carbon pricing, technology costs, and local energy availability to estimate the most sustainable and low-cost hydrogen supply method.
Key Outcomes on Emission Reduction and Energy Savings
The findings indicated that utilizing diversified hydrogen production methods, especially the combination of blue and green hydrogen, could reduce lifecycle CO2 emissions by 65% to 96% compared to coal-based production. In Beijing, this could lower emissions from over 40 million tons today to just 1.7 to 6.7 million tons per year by 2060.
While initially expensive, blue hydrogen becomes more viable as CCUS technology improves and carbon taxes rise, with its highest impact expected around 2055, potentially avoiding up to 3.4 million tons of CO2 in Beijing under favorable conditions.
By 2050, over 50% of the hydrogen market in the pilot cities could rely on renewable electrolysis, potentially exceeding 95% in cities like Beijing by 2060. This shift depends on falling costs of electrolyzers and cheaper renewable energy, with PEM electrolyzer costs projected to drop significantly by 2035 and 2060. Coal gasification and SMR, currently dominant, are expected to decline due to carbon pricing and policy changes, with gray hydrogen shrinking from over 90% in 2030 to as low as 4% to 14% by 2060.
Practical Applications for Urban Energy Systems and Policy
This research highlights the importance of leveraging local resources to design effective hydrogen production strategies. Cities rich in industrial by-products should prioritize by-product hydrogen recovery to reduce costs and emissions. Areas abundant in solar, wind, or hydropower are well-suited for scaling green hydrogen production.
Government policies are important for accelerating hydrogen adoption. Support measures like capital subsidies and tax credits can help reduce costs. Establishing unified certification standards for clean hydrogen enhances market transparency and builds consumer trust. Investments in electrolyzer manufacturing, renewable energy infrastructure, and hydrogen distribution are necessary to overcome technical and economic challenges.
Toward Sustainable Urban Development
The study demonstrated that diversified hydrogen production can significantly reduce carbon emissions in urban areas. By 2060, employing a mix of hydrogen technologies customized to local conditions could cut emissions by 65% to 96% compared to relying solely on coal-based hydrogen. Blue hydrogen, along with CCUS and carbon pricing, is a crucial transition step toward achieving a green hydrogen future.
Future work should address challenges related to hydrogen storage, transportation emissions, infrastructure costs, and supply chain risks. This research highlights that adopting multiple hydrogen pathways is an effective strategy for achieving carbon neutrality, enhancing energy security, and supporting sustainable urban energy systems in China and beyond. Collaborative planning and robust policy support will be essential for scaling hydrogen technologies and meeting national carbon targets.
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Source:
Chu, Y., Zhou, K., Hu, R. et al. Diversified hydrogen production methods can reduce carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption across Chinese cities. Commun Earth Environ 6, 471 (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02452-5, https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02452-5