Without stronger recycling systems, millions of tons of valuable metals from China’s retired trucks risk being lost to pollution and waste.
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A recent study published in Communications Earth and Environment highlights the urgent need for sustainable resource management in China’s fast-growing transportation sector. The study specifically focused on the vast resource potential of end-of-life trucks (ELTs). The research team set out to forecast future ELT volumes, evaluate the recovery potential of critical metals, estimate the economic gains, and assess the carbon emissions tied to recycling versus primary mining.
Background
China’s booming auto industry has driven a sharp rise in vehicle retirement rates, especially for trucks—heavy-duty vehicles that contain large quantities of recyclable materials, including ferrous and non-ferrous metals, plastics, and glass. Currently, many ELTs are handled through informal or inefficient recycling processes, leading to pollution and wasted resources. While formal recycling systems are emerging, they still face regulatory, technological, and financial challenges.
Trucks are particularly significant for China’s economy due to their key role in road transport. At the same time, they house substantial mineral resources such as iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), and even precious metals like gold and platinum. Extracting these materials through traditional mining consumes large amounts of energy and contributes to environmental degradation—issues that urban mining could help address.
The Current Study
To explore this opportunity, the researchers used a dynamic stock-driven population balance model to project ELT trends in China through 2050. This model draws on historical vehicle stock data, material composition, market prices, and emissions factors to simulate how ELTs accumulate and flow over time.
By accounting for vehicle lifespan, sales trends, policy shifts, and scrappage rates, the model estimates how many trucks will reach end-of-life each year. It also quantifies the resource content of these vehicles, with a focus on high-value materials like iron, aluminum, copper, rare earth elements, and precious metals.
The economic analysis considers inflation-adjusted commodity prices alongside the costs and benefits of urban mining. On the environmental side, the model incorporates emissions data from both primary mining and recycling, enabling a comparison of their carbon footprints.
Results and Discussion
The study projects a dramatic rise in ELT stock—from 6 million tons in 2010 to roughly 53 million tons by 2050, a nine-fold increase. This growth is largely driven by the expanding use of heavy and small trucks, which are both material-intensive and rich in recoverable metals.
Among these, iron and aluminum make up the bulk of recoverable materials, followed by copper and a growing share of rare earths and precious metals. The study suggests that urban mining could reclaim millions of tons of valuable resources, significantly reducing the need for new extraction.
Economically, the value of recoverable resources is set to grow from about US$2.6 billion in 2010 to over US$44 billion by 2050 (adjusted for inflation). These figures make a strong case for scaling up recycling infrastructure and improving recovery processes.
Environmentally, the impact is equally compelling. By 2050, metal recycling from ELTs could reduce carbon emissions by around 58 million tons, primarily by replacing emissions-intensive primary production with lower-emission recycling. Given China’s current reliance on fossil fuels, the potential emissions savings highlight the importance of resource efficiency and urban mining in climate policy.
Conclusion
This study positions urban mining of ELTs as a critical strategy in China’s broader push for sustainable development and carbon reduction. The projected surge in end-of-life trucks presents both a logistical challenge and a strategic opportunity: these vehicles represent a massive, underutilized stockpile of secondary raw materials.
By implementing robust recycling policies, investing in recovery technologies, and expanding formal recycling systems, China can tap into this resource stream to reduce reliance on environmentally damaging mining practices. The findings make a strong case for prioritizing comprehensive material recovery—especially of critical and rare metals—as part of the country’s resource security and decarbonization agenda.
Source:
Xu G., Xiong X., et al. (2025). Resource, economic, and carbon benefits of end-of-life trucks’ urban mining in China. Communications Earth and Environment 6, 805. DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02832-x, https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02832-x