Researchers have conducted a climate risk assessment of key open marine and coastal ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. This study, published in Scientific Reports, highlights the urgent need to understand how rising temperatures, sea-level rise, and other human activities affect biodiversity and ecosystem resilience.
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These findings emphasize the importance of targeted conservation and management strategies to protect the Mediterranean’s rich marine life and the vital ecosystem services it provides to local communities and economies.
Vulnerability of Mediterranean Ecosystems
The Mediterranean Sea is a biodiversity hotspot, home to over 17,000 marine species, with nearly 20-30% being endemic.
This biodiversity is crucial for ecological balance and supports economic activities such as fisheries, tourism, and coastal protection. However, the region is particularly vulnerable to climate change, with rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise disrupting habitats and shifting species distributions.
These changes are further intensified by human activities, including overfishing, pollution, and habitat degradation, which exert pressure on fragile ecosystems.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes the crucial need for scenario-based approaches to assess future risks. These approaches are important for predicting and managing potential impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functions.
Methodology: Examining Climate Change Risks
Researchers used a scenario-based approach to assess the risks posed by climate change to Mediterranean ecosystems. They reviewed 196 peer-reviewed publications that projected changes under different climate scenarios, focusing on major drivers such as sea-level rise, ocean warming, and acidification, as well as their interactions with overfishing and pollution.
Habitats were classified into two groups: coastal ecosystems (including sandy beaches, rocky coasts, lagoons, wetlands, and coastal aquifers) and open marine ecosystems (comprising seagrass meadows, coralligenous formations, and epipelagic zones). Risk levels were categorized as undetectable, moderate, high, or very high, based on the strength of evidence in the literature. The study used a “burning embers” diagram to visualize how risks increase with rising temperatures, identifying critical thresholds for ecological change.
Key Findings on Ecosystem Risks
The study showed significant projections for Mediterranean ecosystems, particularly for coastal habitats. All coastal ecosystems are expected to face high to very high risks once sea surface temperatures exceed 0.8 °C relative to the 1976-2005 baseline.
Seagrass meadows, mainly Posidonia oceanica, could lose up to 75% of their suitable habitat by 2050 under high-emission scenarios. Ocean acidification poses additional threats to calcifying organisms, disrupting ecological balance and weakening habitat structures.
Coastal ecosystems, including wetlands and lagoons, are also at risk due to exposure to multiple stressors such as sea-level rise, erosion, and flooding. Risk levels for these ecosystems are projected to escalate rapidly as temperatures surpass 2 °C, potentially leading to severe biodiversity loss and the functional extinction of key species.
Open marine ecosystems demonstrated lower vulnerability, with epipelagic zones facing risks ranging from undetectable to moderate. However, seagrass meadows, seaweeds, and coralligenous habitats remained highly sensitive to warming and acidification.
The outcomes also highlighted significant geographical gaps in research, with a disproportionate amount of data focused on northern and western Mediterranean regions. This imbalance may lead to underestimating risks in southern and eastern areas, thereby highlighting the need for more comprehensive data collection.
Applications for Human Activities and Biodiversity
This research has significant implications for human activities reliant on marine resources. The Mediterranean Sea is key for food security, tourism, and coastal protection; degradation of its ecosystems could threaten the livelihoods of millions. Integrated management strategies could address both climatic and non-climatic stressors to strengthen the ecosystem.
Key recommendations include expanding marine protected areas, promoting sustainable fishing practices, reducing pollution, and incorporating climate projections into marine spatial planning and management. Researchers emphasize the necessity for region-specific adaptation strategies, particularly in underrepresented areas of the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean. Enhanced collaboration among Mediterranean countries is essential for addressing cumulative stressors through coordinated conservation efforts.
Recommendations for Future Research and Policy
Future work should prioritize detailed sub-regional assessments to effectively address the challenges of climate change and capture the unique ecological dynamics of different areas. This will enable the development of targeted and locally relevant conservation strategies.
Integrating multi-stressor experimental studies to quantify the combined impacts of climate-related factors on marine ecosystems will enhance predictive models and guide adaptive management practices. Building strong partnerships among scientists, policymakers, and local communities will be crucial to ensure that adaptation measures are evidence-based and tailored to the specific needs of vulnerable ecosystems.
Conclusion and Call to Action
This study comprehensively assesses the climate change risks facing Mediterranean marine and coastal ecosystems. It highlights their vulnerability to rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification, and other anthropogenic stressors.
The findings underscore the urgent need to integrate scientific research into policy frameworks to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services that are key to the region’s economy and livelihoods. Immediate and coordinated conservation efforts are necessary to protect the Mediterranean’s rich biodiversity. By adopting adaptive management practices and promoting sustainable resource use, stakeholders can build resilience and ensure that these ecosystems continue supporting ecological functions and human well-being in a changing climate.
Journal Reference
Hassoun, A.E.R., & et al. (2025). Climate change risks on key open marine and coastal mediterranean ecosystems. Sci Rep 15, 24907. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-07858-x, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-07858-x
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