Fraunhofer Develops High-Performance Software for Green Power Forecasts

Fraunhofer Researchers, in collaboration with TenneT TSO, a transmission grid operator, has developed a software to provide daily basis forecasts on the electricity supply from renewable energies, including wind and solar energy.

Actually, transmission system operators find it difficult to forecast the varying electricity supply from renewable energies and market this power on the European Power Exchange (EPEX). Considering this fact, the researchers developed the software that obtains multiple forecasts and integrates them together into a single projection, which is quite reliable.

Both wind and solar power can be affected by natural fluctuations. For example, at TenneT TSO, the wind power can vary from a few 100 MW to around 9000 MW in a few days, whereas, the solar power can vary largely within a few hours.

Recently, precalculation services were available to calculate the amount of renewable energies produced depending on the weather. The forecasts from different suppliers are collected to achieve a better prediction. These forecasts are summarized into a single “Meta-Forecast” for the next day. Estimations for other renewable energies including geothermal and hydroelectric power, landfill gas and biomass are added to these forecasts. Collectively, the total volume of green power is obtained and marketed on the EPEX.

The software, EMS-EDM PROPHET, developed by the Fraunhofer Application Center System Technology AST, Ilmenau, provides better forecasts when compared to the previous method. The process involves around 15,000 individual steps to produce the integrated forecast for the next day.

Above all, the software can provide forecast for every 15 min and also optimizes the green energy quota marketing on the EPEX. Hence, income from green energy is increased and use of balancing energy is reduced. Altogether, the cost share for green energy that a consumer pays in the electricity bill is reduced.

The software is being used for solar, water, geothermal and wind power and will be available sooner for biomass and other energy sources. In addition, the software information can be used online.


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