Reviewed by Lexie CornerMay 30 2025
A new analysis from the University of California, Davis, published in Nature Sustainability, explores how a combination of new mining operations and battery recycling could help meet future lithium demand. The researchers discovered that recycling could play an important role in easing supply constraints.
Lithium-ion batteries, which are both lightweight and energy-dense, are essential components in electric vehicles. Global demand for lithium is expected to rise steadily over the next 25 years.
Batteries are an enormous new source of demand for lithium.
Alissa Kendall, Study Senior Author and Ray B. Krone Endowed Professor, Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis
According to Kendall, lithium, once in modest and stable demand, was supplied by only a few mines until about a decade ago. As electric vehicle adoption has expanded, global demand for lithium has grown, increasing by 30 % between 2022 and 2023.
“Governments need to know where lithium will come from and if we’re going to run out,” added Kendall.
Previous studies have primarily estimated cumulative lithium demand over the next 30 years based on known reserves, according to graduate student Pablo Busch, the study’s lead author. He noted that opening a new lithium mine can require investments of several billion dollars and may take 10 to 15 years to begin production. Environmental regulations and local opposition can also lead to delays or cancellations of proposed mining projects.
It’s not just about having enough lithium; it’s how fast you can extract it. Any supply disruption will slow down electric vehicle adoption, reducing mobility access and extending the operation of combustion engine vehicles and their associated carbon emissions.
Pablo Busch, Study First Author and Graduate Student, University of California, Davis
There are three main sources of lithium: hard rock, sedimentary clay, and underground brine, listed in order of extraction complexity. In Australia, lithium is mainly extracted from hard rock and currently supplies about half of global production. Lithium-rich brine is found in geothermal areas and oilfields in regions of South America and the United States, while lithium-bearing clay is also present in some locations.
A fourth potential source is the recycling of used batteries. According to Kendall, recycling remains relatively costly compared to conventional mining.
Modeling Supply and Demand
Busch and Kendall modeled how the need for new lithium mines could develop under different demand scenarios. Under a high-demand scenario, they estimate that up to 85 new or expanded lithium sources may be required by 2050. However, with policies that promote smaller battery sizes and large-scale global recycling, that number could be reduced to as few as 15.
The study highlights the potential influence of battery recycling on the lithium market.
Kendall added, “Recycling is really important for geopolitical and environmental reasons. If you can meet a small percentage of demand with recycling, it can have a big impact on the need for new mines.”
Some new mining activity will still be necessary to generate an initial supply of lithium that can later be recycled. Based on current projections, recycling is expected to have a more noticeable impact starting around 2035, depending on demand levels.
Improved efficiency standards for electric vehicles and investments in public charging infrastructure—intended to reduce concerns about vehicle range—could help lower lithium demand by supporting the use of smaller vehicles.
Additional authors of the study include Prosper Ogbonna and Yunzhu Chen, both from UC Davis. The research was supported by grants from the ClimateWorks Foundation and the Heising-Simons Foundation.
Journal Reference:
Busch, P., et al. (2025). Effects of demand and recycling on the when and where of lithium extraction. Nature Sustainability. doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01561-5