New research warns that the race to secure nickel could put some of the world’s most important land and marine conservation areas at risk.
Study: Growing nickel supply from the tropics threatens priority conservation areas. Image Credit: Nanang Sugi/Shutterstock.com
Nickel Demand and Biodiversity Threats
Nickel's unique properties make it fundamental for battery production and stainless steel manufacturing, highlighting its importance in future energy systems.
Nickel is primarily obtained from two deposit types: laterite and magmatic sulfide. Laterite deposits, often located near surface soils beneath tropical forests, dominate future supply projections and are notably abundant in countries such as Indonesia, which currently controls more than half of the world's production.
Mine-by-Mine Supply Modeling
This study employs a global, mine-by-mine scenario modeling approach known as the Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model. The model simulates nickel production from various known deposits between 2025 and 2050 under multiple demand scenarios aligned with international policy trajectories.
The modeling framework incorporates uncertainties in mine development feasibility, production rates, and deposit value, enabling a stochastic understanding of future supply pathways. Analytical layers include spatial overlays of mining sites with priority areas for terrestrial and marine biodiversity conservation and carbon storage.
Scenarios consider different degrees of mining restrictions in priority areas and explore the potential impact of delaying deep-sea extraction of polymetallic nodules as an alternative supply source. The aim is to reveal potential trade-offs and supply shortfalls resulting from conservation-oriented restrictions.
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Conservation Risks and Trade-offs
The model indicates that laterite deposits will contribute approximately 78 to 83 % of nickel supply from 2025 to 2050, underscoring the dominance of tropical-source nickel in the global market. Notably, the analysis reveals that about half of this projected production occurs within the top 10 % of global land areas designated as critical for biodiversity and carbon conservation.
This overlap highlights a stark trade-off between reliable nickel supply for energy transition technologies and the preservation of ecologically important landscapes. Avoiding mining in these high-priority terrestrial areas risks supply shortfalls and complicates the ability to meet growing demand.
Moreover, over half of future nickel output comes from coastal mines within 50 km of the shoreline. These operations pose additional risks to marine biodiversity hotspots, particularly in parts of the Coral Triangle region renowned for endemic species and rich ecosystems.
The extensive mining and processing activities upstream could exacerbate sedimentation and pollutant runoff, threatening coastal fisheries and ecosystem health. The study stresses the potential for lasting environmental damage through tailings disposal failures and persistent contamination.
Delaying the development of seabed mining for polymetallic nodules, a potential alternative nickel source, could unintentionally lead to increased land-based mining in biodiversity hotspots. The model suggests that a moratorium on deep-sea mining without viable terrestrial alternatives may intensify pressure on tropical forests and coastal ecosystems.
Encouragingly, the research finds that protecting the highest-ranked terrestrial conservation areas alongside the development of polymetallic nodule mining could satisfy projected nickel demand while reducing terrestrial ecological impacts. Such dual pathways underscore that diversifying supply sources may enable a more sustainable metal procurement strategy.
In terms of practical implications, the article advocates for stronger environmental governance and transparency across the nickel supply chain, from mine operations to product end-use. Ecologically responsible mining practices, including rigorous adherence to the mitigation hierarchy and sustainability reporting, are urgently needed to minimize impacts where mining within priority areas cannot be avoided.
Responsible Mining
Meeting the expanding demand for nickel to support low-carbon energy systems intensifies environmental pressure on globally significant tropical and coastal ecosystems.
Nearly half of future nickel mining overlaps with priority conservation areas, presenting substantial challenges for biodiversity preservation and carbon management. Without strategic interventions, mining expansion risks exacerbating habitat loss, pollution, and ecosystem degradation.
A balanced approach, involving diversified supply sources combined with strict environmental safeguards and improved industry transparency, offers the best prospects for aligning mineral extraction with ecological responsibility.
Ultimately, securing mineral supply for low-carbon technologies in a manner consistent with global biodiversity and climate goals demands collaborative policies, innovative environmental management, and advancing circular economy principles. This research provides a crucial evidence base to inform such policies and guide the responsible evolution of mineral supply chains essential for the energy transition.
Journal Reference
Hyman J., Sonter L.J., et al. (2026). Growing nickel supply from the tropics threatens priority conservation areas. Nature Ecology & Evolution. DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03068-4, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-026-03068-4