The EV Tipping Point: Why Combustion Engines Are Dissapearing Faster Than Expected

By Abdul Ahad NazakatReviewed by Laura ThomsonJan 12 2026

The automotive industry is experiencing a significant transition as electric vehicles (EVs) gain market share across major global markets. Recent research published in Nature Communications provides evidence that several leading markets have reached or are approaching a tipping point where EV adoption becomes self-sustaining, driven by technological improvements, declining costs, and supportive policy frameworks.¹

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Understanding Market Tipping Points

A study by Mercure et al. (2025) analyzed historical vehicle sales data and observed a sudden decline in conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales starting around 2019, concurrent with a rapid rise in EV sales. The research identified a "loss of resilience" in the incumbent ICE technology, a statistical indicator consistent with systems approaching a tipping point. This analysis suggests that the EU, China, and potentially the United States have reached or are approaching thresholds where EV adoption could become self-propelling.¹

The concept of a market tipping point refers to the stage at which adoption becomes self-sustaining through reinforcing feedback mechanisms. These include declining costs through manufacturing scale, expanding charging infrastructure, increasing model availability, and growing social acceptance.¹ Once these mechanisms align, the transition can accelerate without requiring continued policy intervention.

The Economics of Battery Technology

Battery cost reduction has been a primary driver of EV adoption. In 2025, BloombergNEF reported that global average lithium-ion battery pack prices fell to $108 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), representing an 8 % decrease from 2024.² Battery electric vehicle (BEV) packs specifically reached $99/kWh, marking the second consecutive year below the $100/kWh threshold.²

This cost decline has occurred despite rising battery metal prices, largely due to continued overcapacity in cell manufacturing, fierce competition among producers, and the increasing adoption of lower-cost lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries.² Historical analysis shows that battery costs have decreased by approximately 97 % since the early 1990s, when prices exceeded $7000/kWh, following a learning curve pattern where costs decline as cumulative production increases.³

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Research examining the economic competitiveness of LFP technology indicates these batteries are reaching cost parity with alternative chemistries for many applications.⁴ Average LFP battery pack prices across all segments reached $81/kWh in 2025, compared to $128/kWh for nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) packs.² LFP batteries avoid the use of expensive minerals such as cobalt and nickel while offering improved safety characteristics and longer cycle life.⁴

Regional Adoption Patterns

EV adoption varies significantly across global markets, with certain regions demonstrating notably higher penetration rates:

China has emerged as the world's largest EV market, with electric vehicles representing a substantial and growing share of new passenger vehicle sales. The Chinese market benefits from a mature domestic supply chain, extensive charging infrastructure, and the availability of affordable models.⁵

Norway continues to lead globally in EV market share, with electric vehicles accounting for over 90 % of new passenger car registrations.⁶ This achievement demonstrates that concerns about cold-weather performance and long-distance travel can be addressed with sufficient charging infrastructure and supportive policies.

European Union markets show varied adoption rates across member states, with growth influenced by policy incentives, charging infrastructure availability, model selection, and local manufacturing capacity.⁶

United States (US) EV adoption has shown steady growth, albeit at lower rates than those of leading markets. Research indicates that while the US market has made progress, it has not yet reached the self-sustaining adoption thresholds observed in some European and Asian markets.⁷

Table 1
Comparative EV Adoption Characteristics by Major Region

Note. Adapted from references 5, 6, and 7.

Defining Mass Market Adoption

Recent research has established quantitative criteria for identifying when EV markets reach mass adoption. Hardman et al. (2024) propose that mass market adoption occurs when markets meet multiple conditions, including sufficient model availability across vehicle segments, charging infrastructure density that eliminates range anxiety, price parity with conventional vehicles, and adoption rates approaching 16 % of new vehicle sales.⁷

Their analysis concludes that while several markets have achieved high adoption rates, most have not yet reached fully self-sustaining mass adoption due to remaining infrastructure gaps, price premiums in certain segments, and limited model availability in some vehicle classes.⁷ This provides important context for interpreting tipping point dynamics, suggesting that policy support and continued infrastructure investment remain necessary even in advanced markets.

Infrastructure and Policy Frameworks

Despite progress in vehicle technology and cost reduction, the development of charging infrastructure remains a critical challenge. Research on infrastructure barriers indicates that charging network expansion has not kept pace with vehicle sales in many markets, particularly in multi-unit dwellings, rural areas, and regions with limited grid capacity.⁸

A comprehensive review of EV adoption challenges identified several infrastructure-related barriers, including uneven geographic distribution of charging stations, reliability concerns with public charging networks, long charging times compared to refueling conventional vehicles, and grid integration challenges in areas with high EV concentrations.⁸ Addressing these infrastructure gaps is essential for achieving the self-sustaining adoption dynamics associated with market tipping points.

Policy frameworks play a crucial role in accelerating or impeding the transition. Mercure et al. (2025) used simulations to identify policy measures that could accelerate the transition to largely eliminate combustion vehicles by 2050.¹ These measures include purchase incentives, investment in charging infrastructure, emissions standards, and support for domestic battery manufacturing.

Market Dynamics and Transition Mechanisms

Research has examined the mechanisms driving EV market transitions beyond simple cost considerations. A study analyzing tipping mechanisms in mobility transitions identified asymmetric power dynamics and system logics that can accelerate or impede the shift to electric vehicles.⁹ These include the influence of incumbent automakers' strategic decisions, the role of new entrants in disrupting established markets, and the feedback effects between consumer adoption and manufacturer investment.

Another investigation of demand shocks in the global EV industry found that major market disruptions, such as policy changes, fuel price spikes, or supply chain innovations, can catalyze technological ecosystem development and accelerate commercialization. These findings suggest that the transition involves complex interactions between technological, economic, and institutional factors rather than following a simple linear progression.

Challenges and Uncertainties

Although evidence suggests that leading markets have reached or are approaching tipping points, several challenges and uncertainties remain. The transition depends on continued reductions in battery costs, which could be affected by raw material supply constraints or geopolitical factors. Infrastructure development requires substantial investment and coordination across public and private sectors. Consumer acceptance varies across demographic groups and geographic regions, influenced by factors including charging access, vehicle range, and cultural preferences.⁸

The pace of transition in peripheral markets may differ from lead markets due to differences in income levels, existing vehicle fleets, infrastructure readiness, and policy support. The extent to which innovations and cost reductions in leading markets will "spill over" to peripheral markets remains a crucial question for global decarbonization efforts.¹

Conclusion

Recent research provides evidence that major EV markets have reached or are approaching tipping points where adoption could become self-sustaining. The combination of declining battery costs, expanding infrastructure, increasing model availability, and supportive policies has created conditions conducive to accelerated adoption in leading markets. However, achieving fully self-sustaining mass adoption across all markets will require continued investment in infrastructure, further cost reductions, and policy support to address the remaining barriers. The pace and extent of this transition will have significant implications for global transport emissions and climate change mitigation efforts.

References and Further Reading

1. Mercure, J.-F., Lam, A., Buxton, J.E., Boulton, C.A., Akther, A., & Lenton, T.M. (2025). Evidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles. Nature Communications, 17, 240. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66945-9
2. BloombergNEF. (2025). Lithium-ion battery pack prices fall to $108 per kilowatt-hour, despite rising metal prices. Press Release, December 9, 2025. Available at: https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-transport/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-fall-to-108-per-kilowatt-hour-despite-rising-metal-prices-bloombergnef/
3. Ritchie, H. (2021). The price of batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades. Our World in Data. Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline
4. Nunes, A., See, C.Y., Woodley, L., & Wang, S. (2025). Estimating the tipping point for lithium iron phosphate batteries. Applied Energy, 377, 124734. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124734
5. Xing, J.Y., Liu, X., & Zhang, Y. (2023). Development of the electric vehicle industry in China. China Economic Journal, 16(3), 275-296. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2244279
6. Patil, G.R., Pode, G., Diouf, B., & Pode, R. (2024). Sustainable decarbonization of road transport: Policies, current status, and challenges of electric vehicles. Sustainability, 16(18), 8058. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16188058
7. Hardman, S., Shafaeen, M., & Tal, G. (2024). Identifying mass market adoption in the transition to electric vehicles. Environmental Research Letters, 19(10), 104064. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7bd1
8. Adamashvili, N., & Thrassou, A. (2024). Towards sustainable decarbonization: Addressing challenges in electric vehicle adoption and infrastructure development. Energies, 17(21), 5443. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17215443
9. Li, Y. (2025). Steering the electric vehicle future: Asymmetric power dynamics, system logics, and tipping mechanisms in mobility transitions. Energy Research & Social Science, 121, 104214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.104214

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