An international study, led by the University of Bonn and ETH Zurich and published in Nature Communications, explored the potential impacts of a global shift to sustainable pest management. The research involved assessments from over 500 leading experts across various disciplines, including ecology and economics. The majority of these experts anticipate long-term positive consequences from such a transition, even from an economic standpoint.
The 517 experts who participated in the study anticipate positive impacts for the environment (green), food security (blue-green), health (blue), equality (yellow), and the economy (lilac) resulting from this transformation. However, expectations were below average (bars protruding inwards) in Europe, for example, while they were above average (bars extending outwards) in South America. Image Credit: AG Möhring/University of Bonn
The study also indicates that the specific effects will differ regionally. Without crop protection, it is estimated that more than one-third of the world's annual harvest could be lost to pests, weeds, and diseases.
On the other hand, the abundant use of synthetic pesticides can be damaging to human health and ecosystems.
Dr. Niklas Möhring, Professor and Head, Production Economics Group, University of Bonn
The researcher is focused on evaluating the goal conflicts and trade-offs at this research frontier. In their latest study, conducted with 13 colleagues spanning six continents, they investigated a crucial question: What would be the global impact if farmers transitioned to sustainable pest management measures?
Integrated Pest Management, Cultivation of Resistant Varieties
Integrated pest management strategies include cultivating resistant crop varieties, implementing diverse crop rotations, and planting hedges around fields to support natural predator populations.
Unfortunately, locally adapted alternatives practices are often not available and will require more research. Agricultural systems also vary, and it is often not possible to transfer the results of a field study, for example, in Germany, to other parts of the world.
Dr. Niklas Möhring, Professor and Head, Production Economics Group, University of Bonn
Consequently, there is often uncertainty regarding the successful implementation of sustainable pest management in specific regions and the associated trade-offs between environmental goals, crop yields, and farmer economic losses.
“We thus decided to survey local experts to find out what they thought the opportunities and risks associated with such a transformation would be,” said the researcher.
What Do Local Experts Think?
The researchers developed a comprehensive survey to assess the potential consequences of transitioning to sustainable pest management. The survey covered five key areas: environmental impacts, health effects, food security, the economic situation of farmers, and social equality and security, which includes working conditions.
A total of 517 experts with in-depth knowledge of agriculture in specific regions responded to the survey. These respondents were selected to represent a broad spectrum of expertise, spanning disciplines from ecology to economics and toxicology.
“In this way, we wanted to obtain a balanced range of opinions about this complex question,” said Möhring.
Environmental and Health Benefits
The experts' expectations regarding the transformation to sustainable pest management varied based on their geographic origin and field of expertise. However, overall, they anticipated positive long-term effects. Significant improvements were expected in environmental aspects, such as reduced water pollution and enhanced biodiversity, a sentiment shared across all regions and disciplines. Similar positive expectations were noted for the impact on human health.
Economic impacts, however, showed greater divergence. In North America, Europe, and Australia, an equal number of experts predicted positive and negative short-term impacts on farmer income. In contrast, experts from Asia, Africa, and South America were more inclined to view the transition as an economic opportunity. These experts also foresaw a more positive impact on local access to safe food compared to their counterparts in North America, Europe, and Australia.
Sustainability has its Price
“Despite these differences, the experts were surprisingly optimistic overall. This does not mean, however, that the switch to sustainable crop protection would be free. However, higher short- to mid-term costs could pay off in the long term. Generally, it will be key that we support farmers during this transformation by offering them, for instance, tailored and effective alternatives for crop protection and appropriate support mechanisms,” said Möhring.
Möhring is also a member of the transdisciplinary research area “Sustainable Futures” and the PhenoRob Cluster of Excellence at the University of Bonn.
This study relies exclusively on expert opinion, and the practicality of the resulting forecasts remains an open question.
Among other things, we will need to carry out more local studies across various regions in which we can try out sustainable pest management strategies and systematically research their effects.
Dr. Niklas Möhring, Professor and Head, Production Economics Group, University of Bonn
Funding for the study was provided by the German Research Foundation (DFG), the Swiss National Science Foundation, the INRAE Metaprogram SuMCrop, and the Fresh and Secure Trade Alliance FASTA.
Journal Reference:
Möhring, N., et al. (2025) Expected effects of a global transformation of agricultural pest management. Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-66982-4. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-66982-4