December 2025 marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Climate Agreement. The Paris Agreement, adopted on December 12, 2015, represented the first time all nations committed to collective climate action. Yet, 10 years later, the world finds itself at a crossroads: meaningful progress has been made, but the gap between ambition and reality remains wide.
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Why Was the Paris Agreement Created?
The Paris Agreement emerged from years of complex negotiations following the limited success of the Kyoto Protocol, which failed to secure participation from major emitters like the United States and China. The 2015 accord took a different approach. Rather than imposing top-down emission targets, it required all 195 signatory nations to submit their own climate commitments through Nationally Determined Contributions.1
The agreement's central goal was straightforward but ambitious: hold global temperature increases to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C.1 To achieve this, countries would submit updated NDCs every five years. The framework also established mechanisms for transparency, climate finance for developing nations, and regular global stock takes to assess collective progress.
Before the Paris Agreement, the Earth’s temperature was headed toward roughly 4 °C of warming by 2100 - a scenario that would bring catastrophic consequences. The agreement aimed to bend that curve downward through coordinated global action.2
Progress: The Renewable Energy Revolution
The past decade has witnessed remarkable advances in clean energy that few anticipated in 2015. Solar power has become the cheapest energy source in history, with global renewable energy capacity increasing 2.4 times since the Paris Agreement was signed.3
Solar and wind now account for over 90 % of new electricity capacity additions, and renewables overtook coal for the first time in 2025 - a milestone that seemed nearly impossible a decade ago.3
This transformation has been driven largely by reducing costs. Battery storage technology, barely viable in 2015, has become a keystone of the clean energy transition.3 Twenty countries have increased their share of renewable electricity by 20 % or more since the agreement was adopted.3 Framework climate laws have more than tripled globally since 2015, while national climate policy tools have increased sevenfold.3
In 2024, the world invested approximately $2 trillion in renewable energy and infrastructure, which is double the amount invested in fossil fuels. These gains have translated into real emissions impact. Current projections now place global warming at 2.3 °C to 2.9 °C by 2100. Although these emissions are still dangerous, they are significantly better than the trajectory before the Paris Accord.2
Setbacks: The Ambition-Reality Gap
Despite the progress, the world is falling dramatically short of the Paris Agreement's core objective. In 2024, global temperatures exceeded 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels for an entire calendar year for the first time.2 Even though this does not technically breach the Paris target, which refers to long-term averages over decades, it signals how close the world is to that threshold.
The 2023 Global Stocktake, the first comprehensive review under the Paris Agreement, called for deep and rapid emission reductions of 43 % by 2030 and 60 % by 2035, relative to 2019 levels.4 So far, current national commitments tell a different story.
As of November 2025, the submitted 2035 NDCs would deliver only a 16 % to 25 % reduction in global emissions compared to 2019.4 This represents less than half of what the Global Stocktake deemed necessary.
The situation among the world's largest emitters is particularly concerning. G20 countries, which account for nearly 80 % of current emissions, have submitted 2035 targets that would reduce their collective emissions by just 23 % to 29 % compared to 2019 levels.
Developed countries within the G20, those with the greatest historical responsibility and financial capacity, are only targeting reductions of 51 % to 57 %, far below the 60 % global target, let alone the higher levels they should be achieving based on equity principles.4
None of the 45 indicators of climate progress assessed by the World Resources Institute were found to be on track to reach 1.5 °C-aligned targets by the decade's end. Progress has slowed considerably, with the number and stringency of climate policies increasing by only 1 % in 2024. Meanwhile, public finance for fossil fuels continues to grow, rising by an average of $75 billion per year since 2014 despite the global commitment in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels.3
Is the Paris Agreement Working? A Stocktake of Global Climate Mitigation
Video Credit: IMF/YouTube.com
The 1.5 °C Limit in Jeopardy
Several factors contribute to the world’s failure to meet its 1.5 °C commitment. First, emissions have continued to rise since the Paris Agreement was adopted, increasing at a rate of 1.6 % annually - faster than the 1.4 % annual growth rate in the years preceding 2015.
Fossil fuels still account for roughly 70 % of greenhouse gas emissions, and their use has increased by more than 60 % since 1990.4
Second, there is a fundamental mismatch between rhetoric and action. The Global Stocktake endorsed tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling energy efficiency improvements, and transitioning away from fossil fuels. Yet, few countries have translated these collective commitments into specific national targets.
Most G20 NDCs lack quantified economy-wide targets for renewables and efficiency, or credible plans to phase out fossil fuel use. Only Brazil and the UK's 2035 NDCs provide moderately detailed pathways for fossil fuel transition among major economies.4
Third, developed countries have failed to lead in equity demands. Many wealthy nations that should be achieving reductions well above 60 % are targeting far less, while simultaneously falling short on their commitment to provide adequate climate finance to support developing countries.4
As Tracy Carty, Climate Politics Expert at Greenpeace International, noted at COP30, developed G20 countries should be cutting emissions far above 60 %, yet their NDCs amount to only a 51 % to 57 % reduction from 2019 levels.5
Fourth, implementation remains weak. Even as countries submit targets on paper, actual policies and measures often lag. The United States exemplifies this problem: while the Biden administration submitted an NDC targeting 61 %-66 % reductions by 2035, subsequent policy reversals mean actual reductions may only reach 26 %-35 %.4
What is Being Done to Bridge the Gap?
Recognizing these shortfalls, climate advocates and governments pushed for more urgent action at COP30, which concluded in Belém, Brazil, on November 22, 2025.
Greenpeace's analysis of the 2035 climate ambition gap called for a Global Response Plan that would include recognition of the collective shortfall, commitment to peak global emissions in 2025, and agreement to revise and strengthen 2035 NDCs by COP31.4,5 This plan would require national timelines for transitioning away from fossil fuels and a dedicated work programme to accelerate mitigation efforts.
However, COP30 ultimately fell short of delivering these ambitious outcomes. The conference failed to produce either the Global Response Plan advocates had hoped for or a roadmap to end deforestation by 2030.6
As UN Secretary-General António Guterres acknowledged at the conference's close, while COP30 delivered some progress, the gap between where we are and what science demands remains dangerously wide.7
Despite these setbacks at the international level, some regions are taking unilateral action. The clean energy sector continues to expand, with more than three million Americans working in clean energy - about 40 % of the total energy sector.8 The economic case for renewable energy continues to strengthen as costs decline and energy security concerns drive countries to invest in domestic clean power rather than imported fossil fuels.
International cooperation on climate finance is also advancing, albeit slowly. COP30 agreed to triple adaptation finance as part of the broader target to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 through a combination of public and private finance.7
A Decade On: Unfinished Business
The Paris Agreement has proven that global climate cooperation is possible. It has bent the emissions curve, sparked a renewable energy revolution, and created a framework for progressively stronger action. However, as events at COP30 demonstrated, political will remains insufficient to bridge the substantial gap between current commitments and what science demands.
The UN has warned in its latest Emissions Gap Report of a looming temporary exceedance, or overshoot, of the 1.5 °C limit, which is very likely to occur within the next decade.2 This must become a rallying call for action, ensuring this overshoot is limited through faster and bigger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize future climate risks.
The question facing the international community is not whether the Paris Agreement has achieved anything; clearly, it has. The question is whether countries will summon the political will to close the gap. With global emissions still rising, fossil fuel production expanding, and climate impacts intensifying, the next decade will determine whether the Paris Agreement's framework can deliver the transformation it was designed to achieve.
References and Further Reading
- United Nations (2015). Paris Agreement. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf
- Greenpeace International (2025). Happy anniversary to the Paris Agreement? A 10-year review of climate action, setbacks and the fight to keep 1.5°C alive. https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/80203/happy-anniversary-to-the-paris-agreement-a-10-year-review-of-climate-action-setbacks-and-the-fight-to-keep-1-5c-alive/
- Climate Change News (2025). As the Paris Agreement turns 10, what has it achieved? https://www.climatechangenews.com/2025/12/11/health-check-10-years-of-the-paris-agreement/
- Greenpeace International (2025). The 2035 Climate Ambition Gap: An Emissions and Energy Analysis of G20 NDCs. https://www.greenpeace.org/static/planet4-international-stateless/2025/11/c8171a17-the-2035-climate-ambition-gap.pdf
- Greenpeace International (2025). Greenpeace report finds G20 failing to bridge the 1.5°C ambition gap in 2035 NDCs. https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/79789/greenpeace-report-g20-failing-bridge-1-5c-ambition-gap-2035-ndcs/
- Greenpeace International (2025). Climate, forest protection roadmaps slashed from formal COP30 outcome as people demand change. https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/79935/climate-forest-protection-roadmaps-slashed-cop30-outcome-people-demand-change/
- United Nations (2025). COP30 closes with agreement to step up support for developing countries. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cop30
- NRDC (2025). Paris Climate Agreement: Everything You Need to Know. https://www.nrdc.org/stories/paris-climate-agreement-everything-you-need-know
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