Researchers have introduced a new framework to mitigate the short-term but high warming impact of methane (CH4). Their study, published in Nature Climate Change, emphasizes that temporary carbon dioxide (CO2) removals, often criticized for their impermanence, can be utilized to offset methane’s immediate warming effects while still supporting long-term climate objectives under the Paris Agreement.
Image Credit: Parilov/Shutterstock.com
This innovative approach aims to address the urgency of climate action by making use of temporary solutions to manage the challenges posed by CH4 emissions effectively.
The Mechanisms of Temporary Carbon Removal
Temporary carbon removal technologies include methods for extracting CO2 from the atmosphere. Solutions such as afforestation, reforestation, and soil carbon sequestration are often favored for their cost-effectiveness and environmental benefits. However, these methods are vulnerable to reversals due to factors like forest fires, land-use changes, and climatic variations. For example, a forest established to sequester carbon can be devastated by a wildfire.
In contrast, technological approaches such as direct air capture and carbon storage (DACCS) aim to achieve long-term, permanent CO2 sequestration. While these methods offer durability, they often come with high costs and energy requirements.
This ongoing debate has led to a credibility crisis in voluntary carbon markets, where temporary nature-based credits are frequently used to offset permanent CO2 emissions.
The challenge with CH4 is its potency and its relatively short atmospheric lifetime of about 30-40 years, which complicates traditional offset strategies. Relying solely on permanent CO2 removals to counter CH4 emissions fails to address near-term warming and can shift climate damages onto future generations.
Methodology and Findings of the Study
Using the FAIR 2.0.0 climate model, researchers assessed temperature responses and economic damages across multiple emissions scenarios and time horizons. They found that 87 one-ton CO2 removals stored for 30 years are economically equivalent to one ton of CH4, based on avoided climate damages. This highlights the ability of temporary removals to stabilize near-term temperature increases while minimizing intergenerational harm.
The analysis identified 30-year removal contracts as optimal, aligning with methane’s atmospheric lifetime and minimizing welfare imbalances over time. These findings suggest that temporary CO2 removals can effectively address emissions, particularly within emissions trading schemes and climate finance mechanisms that include agriculture.
Implications for Climate Policy and Carbon Markets
The outcomes indicate that CH4 emissions lead to significant but short-lived temperature increases, while CO2 emissions contribute to slower, long-term warming.
When CH4 was offset using permanent CO2 removal techniques over a 100-year horizon, the short-term temperature spike was only slightly compensated by long-term cooling. This mismatch highlights the limitations of relying solely on permanent removals for CH4 mitigation.
Shorter CO2 removal durations proved more effective in smoothing temperature fluctuations. Researchers observed that 28 tons of permanent CO2 removal equate to one ton of CH4, and this balance improves with temporary CO2 removals, reducing intertemporal transfers of economic damages and enhancing overall climate effectiveness.
Practical Strategies for Policymakers
This research clearly highlights the importance of integrating temporary carbon removals into existing climate policy frameworks.
By recognizing the economic equivalence between temporary CO2 removals and CH4 emissions, policymakers can design more inclusive emissions trading schemes that properly account for agricultural emissions.
The study also supports short-term, easily monitored carbon removal contracts, which can enhance transparency and credibility in carbon markets.
A Path Forward for Climate Action
This study supports integrating temporary carbon removals into climate policy to counter the warming effects of CH4 emissions.
By demonstrating the welfare equivalence between CO2 removals and CH4 emissions, it provides a framework for using temporary removals as an effective climate tool. Such approaches can yield meaningful short-term temperature reductions while addressing challenges in nature-based carbon markets.
Future work should focus on developing flexible strategies that balance mitigation with long-term sustainability goals. This includes refining accounting methods and improving climate finance through new, time-bound carbon removal contracts. Overall, this research contributes significantly to advancing carbon management strategies, paving the way for a more sustainable and resilient climate future.
Click here to download a free PDF copy of this page
Journal Reference
Venmans, F., Rickels, W. & Groom, B. (2025). Reducing the large short-lived impact of methane emissions with temporary carbon removals. Nat. Clim. Chang. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02511-x, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02511-x
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author expressed in their private capacity and do not necessarily represent the views of AZoM.com Limited T/A AZoNetwork the owner and operator of this website. This disclaimer forms part of the Terms and conditions of use of this website.