The world is on track to cross the 1.5 °C global warming threshold, likely within the next few years, according to a major new UN Environment Program (UNEP) report released today. Limiting Overshoot finds that even the most optimistic scenario now points to a peak temperature rise of 1.8 °C, with most other projections higher still. It concludes that an "overshoot, peak and decline" pathway can still bring the world back below 1.5 °C if governments act immediately on emissions, methane and fossil fuel phase-out.
As Pacific leaders deliberate in the 55th Pacific Islands Forum in Palau, regional security, climate resilience and development will be top of the agenda. The new UNEP Overshoot report outlines how any time spent above the 1.5 °C threshold threatens all three areas for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), alongside food security, health, economic and ecosystem collapse. Strong political will, effective policies, inclusive governance and finance are all important enabling conditions to reduce peak temperatures and bring the world back below 1.5 °C.
Fenton Lutunatabua, 350.org Pacific and Caribbean Program Manager said:
"We absolutely have to claw back every fraction of a degree possible. Just because overshoot is deemed inevitable, that doesn't mean we stop fighting to limit it to as short an overshoot as possible. It is still within our grasp to limit how high temperatures rise and how long they stay above 1.5 °C, and every day above 1.5 °C is another coastline swallowed, another plantation flooded, another coral reef lost.
"We have the stark science outlining our situation, and we have the solutions, what we need is the political will to see them through. While our leaders are in Palau, all eyes are on one of the world's largest fossil fuel exporters, Australia, and how they act on this urgent warning. The climate crisis is here and any delay in mitigation, in phasing out coal, oil and gas, will only make our adaptation pressures harder and more expensive to bear."
Jacynta Fa’amau, 350.org Pacific Campaigner said:
"We are at this point, not by accident, but because of the actions of the fossil fuel industry and the governments that enable them. Australia sits in the Pacific Forum Leaders Meeting this week with the mantle of COP31 President of Negotiations, but also the shame of being one of the world's largest fossil fuel exporters. The news that we are likely to exceed 1.5 °C in the next few years should not be taken lightly and absolutely needs to be at the center of Australia's climate strategy. There is no road back to 1.5 °C that includes coal, oil and gas expansion and every year of high emissions makes limiting overshoot more difficult.
The impacts won't only be felt in the Pacific, it will be felt by the agriculture industry, coastal cities and vulnerable communities in Australia and beyond. At the same time, finance for adaptation has never been more crucial. We aren't yet aware of the multiplying, non-linear effects that a world beyond 1.5 °C brings, but we do know that Pacific people will be on the frontlines of these effects and deserve to be prepared."
UNEP warns that vulnerable communities are already facing the fallout of rising global temperatures, and that adaptation and mitigation need to happen together to respond to changing conditions. 350.org Pacific maintains that this overshoot is harmful beyond lines on a graph. It is not an argument for resignation but for urgency, and calls for an immediate phase out of fossil fuels, accessible and adequate climate finance from those historically responsible for climate harm, and investment in renewable energy solutions that are adaptive and equitable.